Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	15	4	11	5	-	-	2.85	1.5	-	-
Away	0	0	0	10	1	9	3	-	-	-	2.5	1.4	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
3.25	1.73	5.5	1.14	2	1.33	1.98	1.88	6.5	1.11	21	1.01	3	1.4

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +22.8% | EV +31.9% | ROI +33.4% | n=363 | k=1.40

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +21.1% | EV +29.5% | ROI +28.2% | n=363 | k=1.40

3) Watch | AWAY | Edge +6.2% | EV +34.0% | ROI +33.3% | n=363 | k=5.50

4) Watch | Over 0.5 Goals | Edge +11.8% | EV +23.2% | ROI +0.1% | n=363 | k=1.98

AI-agent: At the 75th minute, the Fiorentina vs Sassuolo match remains goalless with no red cards. Market pressure strongly favors a draw, with the odds dropping 44% from pre-match levels, reflecting a balanced game but with Fiorentina showing more shot activity. Sassuolo has increased pressure in the latest phase, yet Fiorentina remains more active overall and above their last head-to-head benchmark, while Sassuolo is below theirs. Historical data supports under 3.5 goals with a 95.3% win rate and a solid ROI of 33.4%, confirming a strong edge for this market. The best model suggestion is under 3.5 goals at 1.40 odds with a 22.8% edge and 31.9% expected value. However, the entry conditions are not fully met due to the current score and match tempo, so this is a watch situation rather than a firm bet. The top-4 markets also recommend monitoring under 3.5 goals and away handicap +1, indicating potential value but advising caution and risk control.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1378196 | minute: 75