Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	4	2	2	4	-	-	-	1.57	-	-
Away	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	-	-	-	2.35	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
2.5	2.5	3.75	1.25	1.5	1.5	1.3	3.5	2.2	1.65	5	1.17	13	1.04

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | AWAY | Edge +5.6% | EV +21.0% | ROI +3.7% | n=510 | k=3.75

2) No Bet | Double Chance X2 | Edge -0.8% | EV -1.2% | ROI +5.6% | n=510 | k=1.50

3) No Bet | Double Chance 12 | Edge -0.3% | EV -0.4% | ROI -14.1% | n=510 | k=1.50

4) No Bet | Under 1.5 Goals | Edge -4.2% | EV -6.9% | ROI +2.6% | n=510 | k=1.65

AI-agent: At 43 minutes with a 0-0 scoreline, the market shows strong support for a draw, with odds dropping 19% from pre-match levels, indicating clear market pressure. Bologna leads in shots and has been more active recently, though both teams play at a slower pace than in their last meeting, which ended 0-2 to Cagliari. Historical data from 510 similar matches favors an away win with a 27.6% probability and a positive ROI of 3.7%. The model suggests betting on an away win at odds of 3.75 with an edge of +5.6% and expected value of +21.0%, but this edge is just below the minimum threshold of 6.0%, so no bet is recommended now. This is a monitoring situation; the away win is the best candidate but requires confirmation before placing a stake. Risk control advises caution given the current market and model signals.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1378205 | minute: 43