Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	5	3	2	0	-	-	-	1.6	-	-
Away	0	0	0	3	0	3	1	-	-	-	2.3	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
2.4	2.88	3.4	1.3	1.36	1.5	1.14	5.5	1.65	2.2	3.2	1.36	6	1.12

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | AWAY | Edge +5.9% | EV +20.1% | ROI -4.7% | n=721 | k=3.40

2) No Bet | Under 1.5 Goals | Edge -2.2% | EV -4.8% | ROI +12.6% | n=721 | k=2.20

3) No Bet | Double Chance X2 | Edge -1.3% | EV -2.0% | ROI -0.1% | n=721 | k=1.50

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.4% | EV -3.3% | ROI +8.5% | n=721 | k=1.36

AI-agent: At 28 minutes with a 0-0 scoreline, the market is showing strong support for a draw, with odds dropping 10% from pre-match levels, indicating clear market pressure. The home team, Como, has been more active in shots and tempo recently, outperforming their previous head-to-head form, while Napoli is underperforming compared to their usual level. Historical data for similar situations is weak and shows a negative ROI of -4.7%, so the reliability of past trends is limited. The model favors an away win (Napoli) with an edge of +5.9% and expected value of +20.1%, but this edge is just below the threshold for a confident bet, so no bet is recommended yet. This is a monitoring situation where the away win is a candidate but requires confirmation before placing a stake, and risk control should be applied carefully.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1378206 | minute: 28