Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	3	2	1	0	-	2.35	1.68	1.65	1.65	-
Away	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	-	-	2.2	2.2	2.15	1.57

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.4	4.5	7.5	1.08	1.18	2.75	-	-	1.1	7	1.5	2.62	2.5	1.53

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +32.6% | EV +53.7% | ROI +48.6% | n=465 | k=1.65

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +5.2% | EV +8.2% | ROI +6.4% | n=465 | k=1.57

3) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -0.8% | EV -1.2% | ROI +0.9% | n=465 | k=1.53

4) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -3.3% | EV -7.0% | ROI +14.0% | n=465 | k=2.15

AI-agent: At 25 minutes into the Sassuolo vs Milan match, Sassuolo leads 1-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors the home side, reflected by a 69% drop in odds from pre-match levels. Sassuolo shows more shots and activity compared to recent head-to-head benchmarks, while Milan is underperforming. Historical data strongly supports a +1 handicap on Sassuolo with a 94.3% win rate and a 48.6% ROI, and the model indicates a 32.6% edge and 53.7% expected value at odds of 1.65. However, the entry conditions for placing this bet are not yet met, so this is a watch situation rather than a firm recommendation. The top markets suggest monitoring the +1 handicap on Sassuolo as the best option, while other bets carry less favorable value or negative expected returns.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1378212 | minute: 25