Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	5	2	3	1	-	2.38	1.62	1.65	1.65	-
Away	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	-	-	2.2	2.2	2.25	1.55

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.33	4.75	11	1.05	1.17	3.25	-	-	1.2	4.5	1.9	1.95	3.75	1.28

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +32.9% | EV +54.2% | ROI +51.8% | n=498 | k=1.65

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +4.4% | EV +6.8% | ROI +10.2% | n=498 | k=1.55

3) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -2.8% | EV -6.3% | ROI +22.3% | n=498 | k=2.25

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -1.5% | EV -2.9% | ROI -0.9% | n=498 | k=1.95

AI-agent: At 40 minutes, Sassuolo leads Milan 1-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors Sassuolo, reflected by a 70% drop in odds from pre-match levels, aligning with the current score and shot advantage. Historical data strongly supports a +1 handicap for Sassuolo with a 95.7% win rate and 51.8% ROI over 498 matches. The model identifies a +1 handicap on Sassuolo with a 1.65 odds and a 32.9% edge, but entry conditions are not met yet due to match tempo and score dynamics. This is a watch situation rather than a mandatory bet, suggesting monitoring the AH_HOME+1 market for a potential opportunity while managing risk carefully.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1378212 | minute: 40