Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	6	2	4	1	-	2.42	1.7	1.65	1.65	-
Away	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	-	-	2.2	2.2	2.1	1.52

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.36	4.5	10	1.06	1.18	3	-	-	1.2	4.5	1.88	1.98	3.75	1.28

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +32.8% | EV +54.1% | ROI +54.0% | n=467 | k=1.65

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +3.5% | EV +5.4% | ROI +11.4% | n=467 | k=1.52

3) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -1.5% | EV -2.9% | ROI +12.9% | n=467 | k=1.98

4) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -4.6% | EV -9.7% | ROI +17.5% | n=467 | k=2.10

AI-agent: At halftime in Sassuolo 1-0 Milan, the market strongly favors the home side with odds dropping 70% from pre-match levels, reflecting their current dominance in shots and pressure. Historically, a +1 Asian Handicap on Sassuolo has a very strong record with 97.4% win probability and 54% ROI, supported by 467 similar matches. The model identifies a promising edge of +32.8% and EV of +54.1% on AH_HOME+1 at odds of 1.65, but the entry conditions based on score, tempo, and match stats are not fully met yet, so no bet is advised now. This is a watch situation to monitor the evolving match dynamics rather than a mandatory bet, with risk control in mind given the current 1-0 score and game flow.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1378212 | minute: 45