Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	-	-	-	1.88	1.65	-
Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-	-	2.2	1.98	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
2.5	3.75	2.6	1.44	1.25	1.5	-	-	1.04	13	1.25	4	1.8	2

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | HOME | Edge +12.7% | EV +31.8% | ROI +56.0% | n=2524 | k=2.50

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +20.7% | EV +34.2% | ROI +24.5% | n=2524 | k=1.65

3) Watch | Double Chance 1X | Edge +8.7% | EV +12.6% | ROI +28.3% | n=2524 | k=1.44

4) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +0.0% | EV +0.0% | ROI +4.2% | n=2524 | k=2.00

AI-agent: At 5 minutes into the Sassuolo vs Milan match, Sassuolo leads 1-0 and market pressure favors the home side, with odds dropping 44% from pre-match levels. Sassuolo shows more activity and shot advantage despite Milan being pre-match favorites. Historical data supports a +1 handicap for Sassuolo with an 80.5% win rate and 24.5% ROI, confirming a fair value around 1.24. The model identifies a +1 handicap on Sassuolo as the best option with a 20.7% edge and 34.2% expected value, but entry conditions are not yet met due to current score and match tempo. Top-4 markets suggest watching the home win and +1 handicap markets rather than betting now, indicating a monitoring phase with potential value but requiring risk control.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1378212 | minute: 5