Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	11	3	8	1	-	1.25	1.75	1.65	1.65	-
Away	0	0	0	3	0	3	3	-	-	2.2	2.2	2.12	3.8

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.03	17	51	1	1.02	15	-	-	-	-	1.53	2.5	3.5	1.3

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +33.1% | EV +54.6% | ROI +64.2% | n=157 | k=1.65

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +26.8% | EV +101.9% | ROI +1.7% | n=157 | k=3.80

3) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +24.1% | EV +42.2% | ROI +50.5% | n=157 | k=1.75

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -1.5% | EV -3.9% | ROI +0.3% | n=157 | k=2.50

AI-agent: At 65 minutes, Sassuolo leads Milan 2-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors the home side, with odds dropping 77% from pre-match levels, reflecting their current dominance in shots and tempo. Historical data strongly supports a +1 Asian Handicap for Sassuolo, showing a 100% win rate in 157 similar matches and a 64.2% ROI. The model highlights a +33.1% edge and +54.6% expected value on this bet, but entry conditions are not fully met yet, so this is a watch situation rather than a firm bet. The top markets confirm this cautious approach, recommending monitoring the +1 AH for Sassuolo while avoiding bets on under 2.5 goals due to negative expected value.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1378212 | minute: 65