Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	13	4	9	1	-	1.16	1.75	1.65	1.65	-
Away	0	0	0	4	0	4	3	-	-	2.2	2.2	2.12	5.25

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.01	26	81	1	1.01	26	-	-	-	-	2.15	1.73	8	1.08

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +24.0% | EV +126.0% | ROI +28.7% | n=155 | k=5.25

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +33.1% | EV +54.6% | ROI +64.2% | n=155 | k=1.65

3) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +26.9% | EV +47.1% | ROI +53.4% | n=155 | k=1.75

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.0% | EV -3.5% | ROI -1.0% | n=155 | k=1.73

AI-agent: At the 78th minute, Sassuolo leads Milan 2-0, with the market strongly favoring the home side as their odds have dropped significantly since pre-match. Sassuolo is dominating the recent phase of play, reflected in their shot advantage and overall tempo. Historical data supports a strong edge for a +1 handicap on Sassuolo, showing a 100% win rate in similar situations with a high ROI of 64.2%. Although the model identifies this bet as valuable with a 33.1% edge and 54.6% expected value, the entry conditions based on current score and match dynamics are not fully met, so no bet is recommended now. The top markets suggest monitoring the +1 handicap on Sassuolo or +1.5 on Milan, but this remains a watch situation rather than a mandatory bet, especially given the risk control considerations and the lack of confirmation for under 2.5 goals.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1378212 | minute: 78