Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	-	-	-	1.85	1.65	-
Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-	-	2.2	2	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
2.5	3.6	2.62	1.44	1.25	1.5	-	-	1.05	11	1.28	3.75	1.9	1.95

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +23.5% | EV +38.7% | ROI +48.3% | n=316 | k=1.65

2) Watch | HOME | Edge +12.3% | EV +30.7% | ROI +53.5% | n=316 | k=2.50

3) Watch | Double Chance 1X | Edge +9.1% | EV +13.1% | ROI +20.6% | n=316 | k=1.44

4) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +0.7% | EV +1.4% | ROI +7.4% | n=316 | k=1.95

AI-agent: At 10 minutes into the Sassuolo vs Milan match, Sassuolo leads 1-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors the home side, with odds dropping 44% from pre-match levels reflecting this advantage. Sassuolo shows more activity and shot dominance, aligning with the current score and surpassing previous head-to-head tempo, while Milan is below their usual level. Historical data supports a strong edge for the home handicap +1, with a 93.3% win rate and 48.3% ROI over 316 matches. The model identifies AH_HOME+1 as the best option with a 23.5% edge and 38.7% expected value, but entry conditions are not fully met yet, so this is a watch situation rather than a mandatory bet. Other top markets also suggest monitoring rather than immediate action, emphasizing risk control in this early phase.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1378212 | minute: 10