Match Replay

Step 40 of 78. Current minute: 45 .

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	6	2	4	5	-	2.38	1.55	1.35	-	-
Away	0	0	0	4	1	3	1	-	-	-	3.1	2.38	1.55

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.25	5	15	1.03	1.17	3.75	-	-	1.3	3.5	2.25	1.62	5	1.17

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +9.0% | EV +14.0% | ROI +13.2% | n=467 | k=1.55

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +15.1% | EV +35.9% | ROI +28.7% | n=467 | k=2.38

3) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +8.7% | EV +32.7% | ROI +51.8% | n=467 | k=3.75

4) Watch | DRAW | Edge +3.6% | EV +18.0% | ROI +36.0% | n=467 | k=5.00

AI-agent: At the 45th minute, Roma leads 1:0 with a balanced game and slight shot advantage for the home side. TOP-4 highlights the AH_AWAY+1.5 market at odds 1.55, with historical validation over 467 matches showing a 13.2% ROI and 73% win probability. The model edge is +9.0% and EV +14.0%, but no new bet is opened due to an existing position or portfolio coverage. The current status is Watch, not Bet; the market should stay on watch awaiting confirmation from tempo and game pressure.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1378231 | minute: 45