Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	10	5	5	7	-	1.18	1.5	1.35	-	-
Away	0	0	0	6	2	4	2	-	-	-	3.1	2.5	4.8

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.01	21	81	1	1.01	21	-	-	-	-	1.85	2	5.5	1.14

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +17.0% | EV +25.5% | ROI +32.7% | n=150 | k=1.50

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +3.8% | EV +18.2% | ROI +28.0% | n=150 | k=4.80

3) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -0.8% | EV -1.5% | ROI -2.6% | n=150 | k=1.85

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -3.2% | EV -6.5% | ROI -5.3% | n=150 | k=2.00

AI-agent: At the 72nd minute, Roma leads Lazio 2:0 with clear control reflected in shot activity and a 13% drop in odds on the home -1 handicap. Historical validation for AH_HOME-1 is strong, showing a 32.7% ROI over 150 matches with a 94.8% win rate. The model edge is +17.0% and EV +25.5% at odds of 1.50, but no new bet is opened since the position is already covered in the portfolio. The market should stay on watch, awaiting confirmation from continued tempo and home pressure.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1378231 | minute: 72