Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	2	1	1	3	-	1.68	1.6	-	-	-
Away	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	-	-	-	-	2.3	2.15

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.18	7	13	1.04	1.1	4.5	-	-	1.07	9	1.36	3.2	2.1	1.73

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +19.1% | EV +86.0% | ROI +53.8% | n=120 | k=4.50

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +0.1% | EV +0.2% | ROI +5.2% | n=120 | k=2.30

3) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +0.2% | EV +0.7% | ROI -28.0% | n=120 | k=3.20

4) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -0.1% | EV -0.1% | ROI +30.8% | n=120 | k=2.15

AI-agent: At 18 minutes into the Arsenal vs Newcastle match, Arsenal leads 1-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors Arsenal, reflected by a 14% drop in odds from pre-match levels, confirming their dominance in shots. However, historical data on similar situations suggests a strong value in betting on Newcastle or a draw (X2) with a 34.2% probability and a 53.8% ROI, supported by a fair odds of 2.93. The model indicates a positive edge (+19.1%) and expected value (+86.0%) for X2 at odds of 4.50, but the entry conditions are not fully met yet, so this is a watch situation rather than a firm bet. The top markets also recommend monitoring X2 and other cautious options, emphasizing risk control in this evolving match context.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1379299 | minute: 18