Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	10	5	5	1	-	3.45	2.15	1.8	-	-
Away	0	0	0	5	1	4	4	-	-	-	2.05	1.73	1.3

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.44	3.75	9	1.07	1.25	2.62	-	-	1.3	3.5	2.38	1.57	5.5	1.14

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +0.2% | EV +0.4% | ROI -0.6% | n=411 | k=1.73

2) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.8% | EV -4.4% | ROI +12.8% | n=411 | k=1.57

3) No Bet | Under 1.5 Goals | Edge -1.5% | EV -5.2% | ROI +6.4% | n=411 | k=3.50

4) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -4.7% | EV -10.1% | ROI -5.0% | n=411 | k=2.15

AI-agent: At the 58th minute, Fulham leads Aston Villa 1-0 in a match where the market increasingly favors the home side, with odds dropping 43% from pre-match levels reflecting current score and pressure. Fulham shows more activity and shots, especially in the recent phase, aligning with the scoreline. Historical data for similar situations is weak and does not confirm a profitable bet on Aston Villa +1 handicap, despite a slight model edge of +0.2% and expected value of +0.4%. The best option remains a watch on Aston Villa +1, but entry rules are not met, so this is a monitoring scenario rather than a clear betting opportunity. Other top markets suggest no bet due to negative edges and expected values, emphasizing caution and risk control.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1379303 | minute: 58