Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-	-	-	1.62	1.73	2.25
Away	2	0	0	6	4	2	3	-	1.62	2.08	2.25	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
15	7	1.17	5	1.1	1.03	-	-	-	-	1.12	6	1.57	2.38

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +23.8% | EV +49.4% | ROI +44.6% | n=125 | k=2.08

2) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +0.7% | EV +1.8% | ROI +8.3% | n=125 | k=2.38

3) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +0.8% | EV +4.6% | ROI +20.0% | n=125 | k=6.00

4) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +2.7% | EV +6.1% | ROI -11.8% | n=125 | k=2.25

AI-agent: At 34 minutes into the match, Tottenham leads Aston Villa 2-0, with no red cards issued. Market pressure favors the away side, reflected by a 61% drop in odds from pre-match levels, aligning with the current score and match dynamics. Tottenham shows more activity in shots and tempo, outperforming their previous head-to-head benchmark, while Aston Villa is below their usual level. Historical data supports a -1 handicap on Tottenham with a 74.5% win rate and a strong ROI of 44.6%, confirming the reliability of this edge. Although the model identifies a positive expected value (+49.4%) and an edge (+23.8%) on the -1 handicap for Tottenham, the entry conditions based on score, tempo, and match stats are not fully met yet, so this is a watch situation rather than a firm betting recommendation. The top markets also suggest monitoring rather than immediate bets, emphasizing risk control and patience for better entry points.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1379310 | minute: 34