Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	3	2	1	2	-	1.68	2.3	2.02	-	-
Away	0	0	0	2	1	1	3	-	-	-	1.82	1.6	2.15

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.22	6.5	12	1.04	1.11	4	-	-	-	-	1.07	9	1.4	3

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +27.4% | EV +62.9% | ROI +75.3% | n=34 | k=2.30

2) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -0.7% | EV -1.5% | ROI -24.1% | n=34 | k=2.15

3) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -1.2% | EV -3.5% | ROI +23.5% | n=34 | k=3.00

4) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -5.5% | EV -9.2% | ROI +8.4% | n=34 | k=1.68

AI-agent: At 28 minutes into the Newcastle vs Brighton match, Newcastle leads 2-0 with no red cards. Market pressure strongly favors Newcastle, reflected in a 55% drop in odds from pre-match levels. Newcastle has been more active in shots and overall tempo, especially in the recent phase, aligning with the current score. Historical data supports a -1 handicap on Newcastle with an 88% win rate and 75.3% ROI over 34 similar matches. The model shows a +27.4% edge and +62.9% expected value on AH Newcastle -1 at odds of 2.30, but the entry conditions are not yet fully met, so this is a watch situation rather than a confirmed bet. Monitoring this market is advised, considering the positive indicators but also the need for risk control.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1379317 | minute: 28