Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	5	4	1	2	-	1.68	2.3	2.02	-	-
Away	0	0	0	2	1	1	3	-	-	-	1.82	1.6	2.15

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.2	7	12	1.04	1.1	4.33	-	-	-	-	1.08	8	1.44	2.75

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +29.2% | EV +67.2% | ROI +73.1% | n=39 | k=2.30

2) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -3.0% | EV -5.1% | ROI +7.4% | n=39 | k=1.68

3) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -1.6% | EV -4.3% | ROI +19.9% | n=39 | k=2.75

4) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -3.2% | EV -6.9% | ROI -22.8% | n=39 | k=2.15

AI-agent: At 33 minutes into the Newcastle vs Brighton match, Newcastle leads 2-0 with no red cards. Market pressure strongly favors Newcastle, with odds dropping 56% from pre-match levels, reflecting their active dominance in shots and tempo. Historical data supports a bet on Newcastle -1 handicap, showing an 86.2% win rate and 73.1% ROI over 39 similar matches. The model indicates a +29.2% edge and +67.2% expected value for this bet at odds of 2.30, but the entry conditions based on current score and match rhythm are not yet fully met. This is a watch situation rather than a mandatory bet, advising careful monitoring before committing stakes.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1379317 | minute: 33