Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	10	5	5	2	-	1.52	2.3	2.02	-	-
Away	0	0	0	7	1	6	5	-	-	-	1.82	1.6	2.42

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.09	9	23	1.01	1.07	7	-	-	-	-	1.3	3.5	2.38	1.57

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +34.6% | EV +79.5% | ROI +77.9% | n=52 | k=2.30

2) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -2.6% | EV -3.9% | ROI +2.6% | n=52 | k=1.52

3) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -3.1% | EV -4.8% | ROI -3.3% | n=52 | k=1.57

4) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -4.4% | EV -5.7% | ROI +10.0% | n=52 | k=1.30

AI-agent: At the 59th minute with Newcastle leading 2-0, the market strongly favors the home side, reflected by a 60% drop in odds from pre-match levels. Newcastle has been more active in shots and tempo, aligning with the current scoreline. Historical data for similar situations shows a strong edge for the home team with a -1 handicap, boasting an 87.5% win rate and a 77.9% ROI. Although the model identifies a +34.6% edge and +79.5% expected value on AH_HOME-1 at odds of 2.30, the entry conditions are not fully met yet, so this is a watch situation rather than a firm bet. Risk control is advised given the match dynamics and current statistics.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1379317 | minute: 59