Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	10	5	5	2	-	1.5	2.38	2.02	-	-
Away	1	0	0	9	2	7	7	-	-	-	1.82	1.55	2.5

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.4	3.75	12	1.04	1.25	2.75	-	-	-	-	-	-	1.61	2.3

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +48.9% | EV +122.1% | ROI +81.8% | n=55 | k=2.50

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +9.7% | EV +15.1% | ROI -10.3% | n=55 | k=1.55

3) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -1.8% | EV -4.2% | ROI -12.2% | n=55 | k=2.30

4) No Bet | Double Chance X2 | Edge -4.2% | EV -11.6% | ROI -15.0% | n=55 | k=2.75

AI-agent: At 72 minutes with Newcastle leading 2-1, the market increasingly favors the home side, reflected by a 48% drop in odds from pre-match levels. Newcastle has been more active in shots, though Brighton is applying pressure recently. Historical data supports a +1.5 Asian Handicap on Brighton with a strong 72.7% win rate and 81.8% ROI over 55 matches, confirming good value at odds of 2.50 and an expected value of +122.1%. However, the model has not triggered a bet due to current match conditions not meeting entry criteria. This is a watch situation rather than a mandatory bet, suggesting careful monitoring before committing stakes.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1379317 | minute: 72