Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	3	2	1	1	-	1.98	1.43	-	-	-
Away	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	-	-	-	-	2.75	1.88

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.28	5.5	11	1.05	1.14	3.5	-	-	-	-	-	-	1.08	8

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +13.7% | EV +48.1% | ROI +75.0% | n=32 | k=3.50

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +12.5% | EV +34.3% | ROI +62.5% | n=32 | k=2.75

3) Watch | DRAW | Edge +5.1% | EV +27.8% | ROI +89.1% | n=32 | k=5.50

4) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +2.3% | EV +4.3% | ROI +40.6% | n=32 | k=1.88

AI-agent: At 29 minutes into the match, Le Havre leads Metz 2-1, with no red cards yet. The market increasingly favors the home team, reflected by a 20% drop in odds from pre-match levels, confirming Le Havre's dominance in shots and pressure recently. Historical data for similar situations shows a balanced 50% chance for a draw or away win (X2), with a strong ROI of 75%, but the historical check is limited to 32 matches. The model suggests a potential value bet on X2 with an edge of +13.7% and EV of +48.1%, but entry conditions are not fully met given the current score and match tempo. The top-4 markets all recommend watching rather than betting now, indicating this is a monitoring phase rather than a firm betting opportunity. Caution is advised, and waiting for clearer confirmation would be prudent.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1387970 | minute: 29