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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	4	0	0	12	5	7	5	-	2.85	1.48	1.3	-	-
Away	3	0	0	7	3	4	2	-	-	-	3.45	2.6	1.4

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.17	6	29	1.01	1.12	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +13.4% | EV +66.8% | ROI -100.0% | n=1 | k=5.00

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +17.3% | EV +45.0% | ROI +0.0% | n=1 | k=2.60

3) Watch | DRAW | Edge +5.7% | EV +34.0% | ROI -100.0% | n=1 | k=6.00

4) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +2.1% | EV +2.9% | ROI +40.0% | n=1 | k=1.40

AI-agent: At 73 minutes with Le Havre leading 4-3 against Metz, the market increasingly favors the home side, reflected by a 27% drop in odds from pre-match levels. Le Havre's dominance is confirmed by shot statistics and recent pressure phases, aligning well with the current scoreline. Historical data for similar situations is limited and inconclusive, making the historical edge weak. The model identifies a promising bet on the away handicap +1 at 2.60 odds with a positive expected value, but entry conditions based on match tempo and score are not yet met, so this remains a watch situation. The top-4 markets also suggest monitoring rather than mandatory betting, emphasizing risk control in this dynamic and close match.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1387970 | minute: 73