Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	4	1	3	4	-	2.75	2.05	1.57	-	-
Away	0	0	0	3	2	1	3	-	-	-	2.35	1.8	1.43

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.53	4	6.5	1.11	1.22	2.38	-	-	1.12	6	1.6	2.3	2.75	1.44

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +4.3% | EV +10.2% | ROI -3.9% | n=497 | k=2.38

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +3.0% | EV +5.4% | ROI +1.4% | n=497 | k=1.80

3) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +0.2% | EV +0.5% | ROI +7.8% | n=497 | k=2.30

4) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -1.2% | EV -1.7% | ROI +5.5% | n=497 | k=1.44

AI-agent: At 36 minutes, Lorient leads Strasbourg 1-0 in this Ligue 1 match. Market pressure favors the home side, with odds dropping 27% from pre-match levels, reflecting their lead and recent dominance in play, although shot data does not clearly support a strong advantage. Historical data on similar situations is weak and does not confirm a reliable edge, with a negative ROI and a failed validation check. The model identifies a potential value bet on an away win at odds of 6.50 with a positive expected value, but entry conditions based on current score, tempo, and match stats are not met, so no bet is advised now. The top-4 markets suggest monitoring double chance on the away team and Asian handicap +1 for the visitors, both showing moderate positive edges but not strong enough for a confident stake. This is a watch situation rather than a mandatory bet, emphasizing risk control given the uncertain match dynamics and historical uncertainty.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1387971 | minute: 36