Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	9	4	5	7	-	1.43	2	1.57	-	-
Away	0	0	0	5	2	3	4	-	-	-	2.35	1.85	2.75

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.06	11	29	1.01	1.05	10	-	-	-	-	1.3	3.5	2.38	1.55

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +26.9% | EV +53.8% | ROI +55.4% | n=166 | k=2.00

2) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +0.7% | EV +2.5% | ROI +9.6% | n=166 | k=3.50

3) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -1.3% | EV -2.0% | ROI +10.2% | n=166 | k=1.55

4) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -1.2% | EV -1.7% | ROI -7.3% | n=166 | k=1.42

AI-agent: At 59 minutes with Lorient leading 2-0 against Strasbourg, the market strongly favors the home side, reflected by a 49% drop in odds from pre-match levels. Lorient has been more active in shots and maintains a tempo advantage, although recent pressure has balanced out. Historical data supports a handicap bet on Lorient -1, showing an 87.1% success rate and a 55.4% ROI over 166 matches. The model confirms this with a 26.9% edge and 53.8% expected value at odds of 2.00. Since this position is already held or covered in the portfolio, no new bet is opened now. This is a favorable situation to monitor with risk control, while other markets like under 2.5 goals are less compelling and under 3.5 or -1.5 handicap bets are not recommended currently.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1387971 | minute: 59