Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	9	3	6	3	-	2.67	2.38	-	-	-
Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-	-	-	-	1.55	1.45

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.67	3.1	7	1.1	1.33	2.1	1.2	4.5	1.8	2.05	3.5	1.3	8	1.08

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +6.2% | EV +13.0% | ROI +38.2% | n=231 | k=2.10

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +0.6% | EV +1.0% | ROI +22.3% | n=231 | k=1.55

3) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +2.2% | EV +3.2% | ROI +24.9% | n=231 | k=1.45

4) Watch | Over 1.5 Goals | Edge +2.2% | EV +3.9% | ROI -3.4% | n=231 | k=1.80

AI-agent: At the 40th minute with a 0-0 scoreline, the market shows strong support for a draw, with odds dropping 18% from pre-match levels, indicating clear market pressure. Marseille, the pre-match favorite, is confirming their dominance in shots and tempo, maintaining an active stance compared to previous encounters, while Nice is underperforming relative to their usual level. Historical data from 231 similar matches suggests a 31.2% chance for an away win with a high ROI of 118.2%, and the fair odds stand at 3.21. The model currently favors an away win at odds of 7.00 with a 9% edge and an expected value of +63.3%, but the entry conditions are not yet met due to the current score and match dynamics. Top-4 market signals recommend monitoring the double chance on the away team and Asian handicaps with moderate edges and EVs, emphasizing this as a watch situation rather than a firm betting opportunity to manage risk effectively.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1387973 | minute: 40