Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	2	1	1	4	-	-	-	-	2.67	1.6
Away	1	0	0	4	2	2	1	-	2.3	1.45	-	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
19	5.5	1.22	4	1.14	1.02	-	-	1.3	3.5	2.35	1.57	5.5	1.14

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +12.9% | EV +34.5% | ROI +29.8% | n=430 | k=2.67

2) Watch | Double Chance 1X | Edge +7.9% | EV +31.6% | ROI +43.3% | n=430 | k=4.00

3) Watch | DRAW | Edge +4.0% | EV +22.2% | ROI +45.8% | n=430 | k=5.50

4) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +5.0% | EV +8.0% | ROI +11.6% | n=430 | k=1.60

AI-agent: At 52 minutes, Lille leads Paris FC 1-0, with no red cards yet. The market pressure favors Lille, whose odds dropped 28% from pre-match levels, reflecting their shot advantage. Both teams play at a slower pace than their last meeting on 23.11.2025, which ended 4-2 with a similar score at this stage. Historical data supports a +1 handicap on Paris FC with a 54.2% win rate and 29.8% ROI over 430 matches. The model shows a positive edge (+12.9%) and expected value (+34.5%) for this bet at 2.67 odds, but entry conditions are not fully met due to current score and tempo. Top-4 markets suggest watching this handicap and related bets rather than placing one now, emphasizing monitoring over immediate action to manage risk effectively.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1387974 | minute: 52