Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	6	2	4	6	-	-	-	-	2.45	1.18
Away	1	0	0	9	4	5	3	-	4.65	1.57	-	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
81	7.5	1.08	7.5	1.08	1	-	-	2.9	1.43	17	1.02	2.75	1.44

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +36.8% | EV +90.2% | ROI +12.1% | n=260 | k=2.45

2) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +24.2% | EV +35.0% | ROI +43.8% | n=260 | k=1.44

3) No Bet | Over 1.5 Goals | Edge -1.7% | EV -5.0% | ROI -10.8% | n=260 | k=2.90

4) No Bet | Under 1.5 Goals | Edge -2.9% | EV -4.2% | ROI -1.3% | n=260 | k=1.42

AI-agent: At 85 minutes, Lille leads Paris FC 1-0, with market pressure favoring the visitors as their odds have dropped 36% from pre-match levels, reflecting their shot dominance. The hosts are pressing in the final stages, but both teams are playing at a slower pace compared to their last meeting on 23.11.2025, which ended 4-2 with a similar scoreline at this minute. Historical data supports a +1 handicap on Paris FC with a 58.1% win probability and 12.1% ROI over 260 matches, confirming a fair value at 1.72 odds. The model identifies AH_HOME+1 as the best bet with a strong edge of +36.8% and expected value of +90.2%, but entry conditions are not fully met due to current score and tempo, so this remains a watch situation. Other top markets suggest watching under 3.5 goals, while over 1.5 and under 1.5 goals are not recommended. This is a monitoring phase rather than a mandatory bet, emphasizing risk control and waiting for clearer entry signals.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1387974 | minute: 85