Match Replay

Step 22 of 64. Current minute: 33 .

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	5	2	3	1	-	2.38	1.62	1.43	-	-
Away	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	-	-	-	2.75	2.25	1.55

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.33	4.5	11	1.05	1.18	3.25	-	-	1.2	4.5	1.88	1.98	3.75	1.28

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +9.4% | EV +30.4% | ROI +31.5% | n=504 | k=3.25

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +4.6% | EV +10.4% | ROI +18.8% | n=504 | k=2.25

3) Watch | DRAW | Edge +1.0% | EV +4.6% | ROI +8.9% | n=504 | k=4.50

4) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.1% | EV -4.0% | ROI +5.7% | n=504 | k=1.88

AI-agent: At 33 minutes with Auxerre leading 1-0, the market increasingly favors the home side, reflected by a 26% drop in odds from pre-match levels. Auxerre's dominance in shots confirms their advantage, and the match tempo supports their control. Historical data for similar situations shows a 40.5% probability for a draw or away win (X2), with a positive ROI of 31.5%, validating this angle. The best model suggestion is X2 with a 9.4% edge and 30.4% expected value, but the entry conditions are not yet met, so this remains a watch scenario. Top-4 markets also recommend monitoring X2 and Asian Handicap +1 for the away team, while Over 2.5 goals is not advised currently due to negative expected value. This is a situation to observe rather than commit to a bet immediately, considering the current score and match dynamics.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1387977 | minute: 33