Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	12	6	6	3	-	1.7	2.38	1.43	-	-
Away	0	0	0	3	2	1	2	-	-	-	2.75	1.55	2.1

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.07	9	41	1	1.07	9	-	-	1.25	4	2.2	1.65	5	1.17

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +24.8% | EV +58.9% | ROI -0.2% | n=459 | k=2.38

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +6.2% | EV +13.0% | ROI +53.7% | n=459 | k=2.10

3) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -3.4% | EV -5.6% | ROI +8.6% | n=459 | k=1.65

4) No Bet | Under 1.5 Goals | Edge -1.4% | EV -5.7% | ROI +1.1% | n=459 | k=4.00

AI-agent: At 52 minutes, Auxerre leads 1-0 against Angers, with no red cards. Market pressure favors the home side, reflected in a 40% drop in odds from pre-match levels, confirming their dominance in shots and tempo. The score aligns well with the match flow, and Auxerre is more active than in their previous meeting, while Angers underperforms. Historical data on similar handicap bets (AH_HOME-1) shows a slight negative ROI and fails the confidence check, despite a model edge of +24.8% and expected value of +58.9%. Given this, the situation is best viewed as a watch scenario rather than a clear betting opportunity, with risk control advised due to the weak historical confirmation.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1387977 | minute: 52