Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	17	7	10	11	-	2.08	4.4	1.12	-	-
Away	1	0	0	2	2	0	4	-	-	-	6.25	1.2	1.73

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
2.1	2	13	1.04	1.73	1.67	-	-	-	-	1.67	2.2	4.33	1.22

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +32.3% | EV +55.8% | ROI +67.4% | n=372 | k=1.73

2) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +14.4% | EV +24.0% | ROI +38.4% | n=372 | k=1.67

3) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.3% | EV -5.0% | ROI +33.1% | n=372 | k=2.20

4) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -3.2% | EV -5.4% | ROI -34.2% | n=372 | k=1.67

AI-agent: At 75 minutes with the score tied 1-1, the market strongly supports a draw, reflected by a 58% drop in odds from pre-match levels. Lille, the pre-match favorite, maintains pressure and shot dominance, showing more activity than in their last meeting, while Le Havre underperforms relative to their usual level. Historical data for similar situations strongly favors the away handicap +1.5 with a 97% win rate and a 67.4% ROI, and the model sees a significant edge of +32.3% and expected value of +55.8% at odds of 1.73. However, the entry conditions based on current score, tempo, and match stats are not yet met, so this is a watch situation rather than a confirmed bet. The top markets suggest monitoring the away handicap +1.5 and double chance X2, while under and over 2.5 goals are not recommended now due to negative expected value and edge.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1387978 | minute: 75