Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	7	2	5	3	-	2.6	1.77	1.6	1.35	-
Away	1	0	0	3	3	0	3	-	-	3.1	2.3	2.1	1.48

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.4	4.33	9	1.07	1.2	2.75	-	-	-	-	-	-	1.2	4.5

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +12.4% | EV +16.7% | ROI +32.1% | n=24 | k=1.35

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +5.0% | EV +10.5% | ROI -10.0% | n=24 | k=2.10

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +0.5% | EV +2.4% | ROI +31.2% | n=24 | k=4.50

4) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +0.4% | EV +1.0% | ROI -31.2% | n=24 | k=2.75

AI-agent: At the 45th minute, Lyon leads Rennes 2-1 in this Ligue 1 match. Market pressure favors the home side with odds dropping 35% from pre-match levels, reflecting the current score. However, shot statistics do not clearly support dominance by either team, and Rennes has applied pressure recently. Historical data for similar situations shows a strong edge for a +1 handicap on Lyon, but the sample size is below the minimum threshold, making the historical confirmation weak. The model identifies AH_HOME+1 at 1.35 odds as the best candidate with a positive edge and expected value, yet the entry conditions are not fully met, so no bet is advised now. This is a monitoring phase rather than a mandatory bet, and caution is recommended given the current game dynamics and incomplete confirmation from the model and history.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1387979 | minute: 45