Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	3	0	0	11	6	5	6	-	3.3	1.93	1.6	1.35	-
Away	2	0	0	6	5	1	5	-	-	3.1	2.3	1.93	1.32

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.33	4.33	15	1.03	1.2	3.25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +16.1% | EV +21.8% | ROI +26.2% | n=8 | k=1.35

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +4.0% | EV +7.7% | ROI -1.9% | n=8 | k=1.92

3) Watch | Double Chance X2 | Edge +2.3% | EV +7.5% | ROI -18.8% | n=8 | k=3.25

4) Watch | DRAW | Edge +0.2% | EV +1.0% | ROI -100.0% | n=8 | k=4.33

AI-agent: At 65 minutes with Lyon leading 3-2 against Rennes, the market shows strong support for the home side, with odds dropping 38% from pre-match levels reflecting the current score. Lyon has been more active in shots and has increased pressure recently, aligning with the scoreline. Historical data on similar situations is limited and thus weak, but suggests a positive edge for a home handicap +1 bet. The model identifies AH_HOME+1 at 1.35 odds with a 16.1% edge and 21.8% expected value; however, the entry conditions are not fully met yet, so this is a watch situation rather than a clear bet. Overall, this is a monitoring phase with potential value if momentum continues, but caution is advised due to incomplete confirmation of the entry criteria.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1387979 | minute: 65