Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	-	-	-	2.67	1.38	-
Away	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	-	-	3	1.45	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
3.75	3.4	2	1.73	1.3	1.25	1.07	9	1.36	3.2	2.15	1.68	4	1.25

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | HOME | Edge +5.9% | EV +22.1% | ROI +26.1% | n=345 | k=3.75

2) Watch | Double Chance 1X | Edge +1.8% | EV +3.2% | ROI +13.6% | n=345 | k=1.73

3) No Bet | Under 1.5 Goals | Edge -1.9% | EV -6.0% | ROI +14.1% | n=345 | k=3.20

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -3.1% | EV -5.1% | ROI +0.5% | n=345 | k=1.68

AI-agent: At 26 minutes in this Ligue 1 match between Nantes and Marseille, the market shows clear pressure towards a draw, with odds dropping 13% from pre-match levels. The shot data does not strongly favor either side, though the recent phase has seen Marseille applying more pressure. Both teams are playing at a slower pace compared to their last encounter, which also was 0-0 at this stage and ended 0-2 for Marseille. Historical data supports a home win with a 33.6% probability and a solid ROI of 26.1%, confirming the reliability of this trend. The model identifies a potential value bet on Nantes to win at odds of 3.75 with an edge of +5.9% and expected value of +22.1%, but the entry criteria are not yet met due to current match dynamics. The top-4 market indicators suggest watching the home win and double chance on the home side, while under 1.5 and 2.5 goals are not recommended. This is a monitoring situation rather than a mandatory bet, advising caution and risk control.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1387981 | minute: 26