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France | Ligue 1 | Nantes - Marseille | 02.05.2026 | 18:00:00 | LIVE 78'   —   Nantes 3:0 Marseille
Side Goal Red Pen Shots Target Missed Corners POS -1.5 -1 AH0 +1 +1.5
Home 3 0 0 15 5 10 7 - 1.7 1.3 2.75 1.5 -
Away 0 0 0 11 4 7 6 - - 2.5 1.43 3.45 2.1
W1 X W2 1X 12 X2 O0.5 U0.5 O1.5 U1.5 O2.5 U2.5 O3.5 U3.5
1.01 29 67 1 1.01 26 - - - - - - 1.65 2.2
TOP-4 markets ranking:
1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +25.9% | EV +38.8% | ROI +50.0% | n=20 | k=1.50
2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +2.1% | EV +3.6% | ROI +70.0% | n=20 | k=1.70
3) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +6.7% | EV +8.7% | ROI +30.0% | n=20 | k=1.30
4) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -0.1% | EV -0.2% | ROI -1.0% | n=20 | k=2.20
AI-agent: At the 78th minute, Nantes leads Marseille 3-0 in a match where the market strongly favors the home side, with odds dropping significantly since pre-match. Nantes has been more active in shots, and the scoreline reflects the game flow well. Historical data for similar situations shows a perfect record for a +1 handicap on Nantes, but the sample size is below the preferred threshold, making the historical check weak. The model identifies a promising bet on Nantes +1 handicap with good expected value and edge, but entry conditions based on current score and match tempo are not yet met. This is a monitoring situation rather than a mandatory bet, so caution is advised despite the positive indicators.
Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1387981 | minute: 78