Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	3	0	0	15	4	11	5	-	2.1	1.65	-	-	-
Away	0	0	0	4	1	3	0	-	-	-	-	2.2	1.7

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.44	5	6.25	1.11	1.17	2.62	-	-	-	-	-	-	1.6	2.3

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +34.6% | EV +72.6% | ROI +100.0% | n=21 | k=2.10

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +21.6% | EV +35.6% | ROI +61.9% | n=21 | k=1.65

3) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -0.6% | EV -1.3% | ROI -1.4% | n=21 | k=2.30

4) No Bet | Double Chance X2 | Edge -20.3% | EV -53.3% | ROI -100.0% | n=21 | k=2.62

AI-agent: At 74 minutes with Dortmund leading 3-0, the market shows no strong signal or significant odds drop from pre-match levels, reflecting the current scoreline. Dortmund confirms their dominance in shots and pressure, especially in the recent phase, outperforming their previous head-to-head benchmark, while Freiburg is below their usual level. Historical data for similar situations suggests a strong edge on Dortmund -1 handicap, but the sample size is too small to confirm the model's recommendation. The model indicates a positive expected value on Dortmund -1 at 1.65 odds, yet the entry rule is not fully validated. Top-4 markets advise watching the Dortmund -1 and -1.5 handicaps for potential value, but no mandatory bets due to risk and historical uncertainty.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388579 | minute: 74