Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	8	4	4	0	-	-	-	2.67	2.1	1.55
Away	1	0	0	5	1	4	5	-	2.38	1.7	1.45	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
8.5	4.5	1.36	3	1.18	1.07	-	-	1.14	5.5	1.65	2.2	3	1.4

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +6.8% | EV +10.5% | ROI +31.2% | n=216 | k=1.55

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +10.1% | EV +21.3% | ROI +55.7% | n=216 | k=2.10

3) Watch | Double Chance 1X | Edge +5.9% | EV +17.8% | ROI +74.8% | n=216 | k=3.00

4) Watch | DRAW | Edge +0.3% | EV +1.2% | ROI +58.5% | n=216 | k=4.50

AI-agent: At 42 minutes into the match, Leverkusen leads 1-0 against FC Koln. Market pressure favors the away side, with odds dropping 29% from pre-match levels, reflecting the current score. Despite this, FC Koln has been more active in shots and overall play, showing higher intensity than in previous encounters, while Leverkusen is below their usual level. Historical data supports a strong edge for a +1.5 handicap on the home team, with an 87.5% win rate over 216 matches and a solid ROI of 31.2%. The model confirms this with a 6.8% edge and 10.5% expected value at odds of 1.55. The best betting opportunity is on FC Koln +1.5 AH, but since this position is already open or covered in the portfolio, no new bet is advised now. Other markets like AH+1, Double Chance 1X, and Draw show promising edges but are recommended for monitoring rather than immediate bets, emphasizing cautious risk management in this balanced game.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388580 | minute: 42