Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	17	6	11	0	-	-	-	2.67	1.88	1.23
Away	2	0	0	8	3	5	5	-	4	1.98	1.45	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
26	4.5	1.25	3.75	1.18	1.01	-	-	-	-	-	-	1.93	1.93

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +27.8% | EV +52.1% | ROI -80.9% | n=34 | k=1.88

2) Watch | Double Chance 1X | Edge +6.2% | EV +23.4% | ROI -55.9% | n=34 | k=3.75

3) Watch | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge +2.1% | EV +4.0% | ROI -1.2% | n=34 | k=1.92

4) Watch | DRAW | Edge +0.6% | EV +2.5% | ROI -100.0% | n=34 | k=4.50

AI-agent: At 76 minutes, Leverkusen leads 2-1 against FC Koln, with no red cards yet. The market is favoring the away side, reflected by a 36% drop in odds from pre-match levels considering the current score. Despite the scoreline, FC Koln shows more attacking pressure, especially in recent minutes, but historical data for similar situations is weak and shows a negative ROI for backing the home team with +1.5 handicap. The model identifies a potential value on AH_HOME+1.5 with an 11% edge and 13.6% expected value, yet the historical check does not support opening a new bet. Top-4 markets suggest monitoring the home handicap and double chance options, but all indicate caution due to negative ROI and limited historical success. This is a watch situation rather than a clear betting opportunity, emphasizing risk control given the current match dynamics and data limitations.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388580 | minute: 76