Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	3	1	2	1	-	-	-	3.1	1.43	1.82
Away	1	0	0	4	1	3	0	-	2.02	2.75	1.35	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
4.33	3.25	1.91	1.8	1.33	1.2	-	-	1.14	5.5	1.1	7	1.48	2.6

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | HOME | Edge +14.9% | EV +64.8% | ROI -42.5% | n=128 | k=4.33

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +12.3% | EV +22.5% | ROI +15.5% | n=128 | k=1.82

3) Watch | Double Chance 1X | Edge +11.6% | EV +20.8% | ROI -25.5% | n=128 | k=1.80

4) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -0.2% | EV -0.5% | ROI +66.6% | n=128 | k=2.60

AI-agent: At 33 minutes, Hoffenheim leads Hamburg 1-0, but the market favors a draw with odds dropping 23% from pre-match levels, reflecting uncertainty. Shot data does not clearly support either side, though Hoffenheim has applied pressure recently. Both teams play at a slower pace compared to their last meeting, where Hamburg led 1-0 at this stage but lost 4-1. Historical data shows a low probability and negative ROI for a home win, and the model's entry conditions are not yet met despite a positive edge and expected value for Hamburg to win. The top markets suggest watching the home win and related bets, but no strong recommendation to bet now due to risk and statistical caution.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388581 | minute: 33