Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	3	2	1	1	-	2.67	2.05	1.68	-	-
Away	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	-	-	-	2.15	1.8	1.45

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.57	4	6	1.12	1.22	2.25	-	-	1.08	8	1.4	3	2.2	1.67

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | AWAY | Edge +1.9% | EV +11.3% | ROI +2.1% | n=382 | k=6.00

2) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +0.2% | EV +0.5% | ROI -4.2% | n=382 | k=3.00

3) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -0.3% | EV -0.4% | ROI -3.6% | n=382 | k=1.67

4) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -1.4% | EV -3.0% | ROI -1.1% | n=382 | k=2.05

AI-agent: At 15 minutes into the Heidenheim vs St Pauli match, Heidenheim leads 1-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors the home team, reflected by a 29% drop in odds from pre-match levels, aligning with their current attacking dominance and shot advantage. Historical data shows a weak edge for an away win, with a 17% probability and modest ROI, confirmed by a solid sample of 382 matches. The model suggests a potential value bet on St Pauli to win at odds of 6.00, but the edge is below the minimum threshold, so no bet is advised now. This is a monitoring situation where watching the away win and under 2.5 goals markets could be beneficial, but caution is warranted given the current match dynamics and historical trends.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388582 | minute: 15