Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	3	2	1	1	-	2.75	2.05	1.68	-	-
Away	0	0	0	2	0	2	1	-	-	-	2.15	1.8	1.43

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.53	4	6	1.12	1.22	2.38	-	-	1.1	7	1.5	2.62	2.5	1.53

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | AWAY | Edge +1.6% | EV +9.7% | ROI +11.8% | n=424 | k=6.00

2) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +0.1% | EV +0.2% | ROI -9.6% | n=424 | k=2.62

3) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -0.5% | EV -0.8% | ROI -4.9% | n=424 | k=1.53

4) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -2.4% | EV -4.4% | ROI -1.9% | n=424 | k=1.80

AI-agent: At 20 minutes into the Heidenheim vs St Pauli match, Heidenheim leads 1-0 with no red cards. The market shows growing confidence in the home side, reflected by a 30% drop in odds since pre-match, aligning with their current attacking pressure and shot dominance. Historically, similar situations favor an away win with an 18.6% probability and a positive ROI of 11.8%, supported by a solid sample of 424 matches. The model suggests a potential value bet on St Pauli to win at odds of 6.00, but the edge of +1.6% is below the threshold for opening a position, so this remains a watch scenario. Top-4 markets confirm this cautious stance, recommending monitoring rather than active betting to manage risk effectively.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388582 | minute: 20