Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	4	2	2	1	-	3	2.25	1.68	-	-
Away	0	0	0	3	1	2	2	-	-	-	2.15	1.62	1.38

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.57	3.75	6	1.12	1.25	2.25	-	-	1.17	5	1.77	2.02	3.4	1.33

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | AWAY | Edge +1.6% | EV +9.8% | ROI -13.4% | n=499 | k=6.00

2) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -0.8% | EV -1.5% | ROI -1.0% | n=499 | k=2.02

3) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -1.8% | EV -2.9% | ROI -4.0% | n=499 | k=1.62

4) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -0.3% | EV -0.4% | ROI -3.0% | n=499 | k=1.38

AI-agent: At the 38th minute in Heidenheim's 1-0 lead over St Pauli, the market shows increased confidence in the home team with odds dropping 29% from pre-match levels. The game has been closely contested, with Heidenheim more active in shots, though the recent phase sees pressure from the visitors. Historical data on similar situations is weak and does not support a profitable bet, showing a negative ROI of -13.4%. The model suggests a potential value bet on an away win with an edge of +1.6% and EV of +9.8%, but this does not meet the minimum threshold for opening a position. The top-4 markets recommend watching this situation rather than placing a bet, emphasizing cautious monitoring rather than a mandatory entry due to the current risk profile.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388582 | minute: 38