Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	6	3	3	1	-	3	2.3	1.68	-	-
Away	0	0	0	8	1	7	3	-	-	-	2.15	1.6	1.38

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.5	3.75	8	1.08	1.25	2.5	-	-	1.3	3.5	2.35	1.57	5.5	1.14

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +7.3% | EV +10.0% | ROI +3.0% | n=427 | k=1.38

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +2.4% | EV +3.9% | ROI -4.0% | n=427 | k=1.60

3) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -1.8% | EV -2.8% | ROI +11.8% | n=427 | k=1.57

4) No Bet | Under 1.5 Goals | Edge -1.2% | EV -4.2% | ROI +2.5% | n=427 | k=3.50

AI-agent: At 56 minutes, Heidenheim leads 1-0 against St Pauli, with the market strongly favoring the home side as the odds for Heidenheim have dropped by 32% since pre-match. However, shot data does not clearly support dominance by either team, and recent play shows St Pauli applying pressure. Historical data for similar situations supports a bet on the away handicap +1.5 with a 74.9% win rate and positive ROI, confirmed by the model with an edge of +7.3% and expected value of +10.0%. Although the position is already open or covered in the portfolio, this remains the best value bet to monitor. Other markets suggest caution, so this is a watch situation rather than a mandatory new entry.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388582 | minute: 56