Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	6	3	3	1	-	3	2.3	1.68	-	-
Away	0	0	0	8	1	7	3	-	-	-	2.15	1.6	1.38

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.5	3.75	8.5	1.07	1.25	2.5	-	-	1.33	3.4	2.5	1.5	6	1.12

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +7.8% | EV +10.7% | ROI +2.7% | n=419 | k=1.38

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +2.7% | EV +4.3% | ROI -4.4% | n=419 | k=1.60

3) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.4% | EV -3.6% | ROI +7.4% | n=419 | k=1.50

4) No Bet | Under 1.5 Goals | Edge -0.9% | EV -3.2% | ROI +0.6% | n=419 | k=3.40

AI-agent: At the 57th minute, Heidenheim leads St Pauli 1-0 in this Bundesliga match. Market pressure favors the home side, with odds dropping 32% from pre-match levels, yet shot data does not clearly support dominance by either team. The guests have been more active recently, though the home team holds the lead without a clear gameplay advantage. Historical data supports a bet on the away handicap +1.5 with a 74.7% win rate and positive ROI, confirmed by the model showing a 7.8% edge and 10.7% expected value. However, no new bet is advised now as this position is already covered. This is a monitored opportunity rather than a mandatory entry, with risk control favoring the away +1.5 handicap at odds of 1.38.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388582 | minute: 57