Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	7	3	4	2	-	3	2.35	1.68	-	-
Away	0	0	0	10	2	8	4	-	-	-	2.15	1.57	1.38

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.5	3.6	9	1.07	1.25	2.5	-	-	1.38	3	2.67	1.45	6.5	1.11

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +9.8% | EV +13.5% | ROI +2.6% | n=402 | k=1.38

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +4.3% | EV +6.7% | ROI -6.5% | n=402 | k=1.57

3) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.4% | EV -3.5% | ROI +6.0% | n=402 | k=1.45

4) No Bet | Under 1.5 Goals | Edge -1.6% | EV -4.7% | ROI -3.7% | n=402 | k=3.00

AI-agent: At the 59th minute, Heidenheim leads St Pauli 1-0, with no red cards yet. Market pressure favors the home side, reflected by a 32% drop in odds from pre-match levels, though shot data does not clearly support dominance by either team. The recent phase shows St Pauli pressing more actively, and while Heidenheim holds the lead, the overall game balance is even. Historical data supports a bet on St Pauli with +1.5 Asian Handicap, showing a 74.6% success rate and positive ROI of 2.6%. The model confirms this bet with a 9.8% edge and 13.5% expected value, but no new position is opened since this bet is already in the portfolio. The best current recommendation is to back St Pauli +1.5 AH, considering risk controls. Other markets like AH +1 or under 2.5 goals are less favorable and should be monitored rather than acted upon immediately.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388582 | minute: 59