Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	1	0	0	2	2	0	1	-	2.6	2.02	1.68	-	-
Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-	-	-	2.15	1.82	1.48

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.57	4	5.5	1.14	1.22	2.25	-	-	1.06	10	1.36	3.2	2.1	1.73

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | AWAY | Edge +1.7% | EV +9.5% | ROI -9.5% | n=316 | k=5.50

2) Watch | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge +0.3% | EV +0.8% | ROI -6.8% | n=316 | k=3.20

3) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -0.1% | EV -0.2% | ROI -4.9% | n=316 | k=1.73

4) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -1.6% | EV -3.2% | ROI -1.0% | n=316 | k=2.02

AI-agent: At 10 minutes into the Heidenheim vs St Pauli match, Heidenheim leads 1-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors the home side, reflected by a 29% drop in odds from pre-match levels, matching the current score and Heidenheim's active shot count. Historically, similar situations show a weak edge for an away win, but the data is not strong enough to confirm a bet. The model suggests a potential value on St Pauli to win with an edge of +1.7% and EV of +9.5%, but this is below the minimum threshold for a confident bet. Top-4 markets recommend watching the away win and under 2.5 goals markets, indicating a monitoring phase rather than a firm betting opportunity. Caution is advised given the historical ROI is negative and the current advantage is modest.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388582 | minute: 10