Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	2	0	0	8	5	3	2	-	1.93	1.43	2.75	1.57	-
Away	0	0	0	2	0	2	2	-	-	2.35	1.43	2.75	1.93

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
1.28	6	9	1.07	1.12	3.5	-	-	-	-	1.08	8	1.44	2.75

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +28.2% | EV +44.4% | ROI +49.3% | n=7 | k=1.57

2) Watch | Away Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +2.5% | EV +4.8% | ROI -45.0% | n=7 | k=1.92

3) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge -6.4% | EV -12.3% | ROI +37.5% | n=7 | k=1.92

4) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -2.1% | EV -3.0% | ROI +1.8% | n=7 | k=1.42

AI-agent: At halftime in Mainz vs Bayern Munich, Mainz leads 2-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors Mainz, reflected by a 71% drop in odds from pre-match levels, aligning with their shot advantage and recent dominance. Historical data on similar situations is limited, making the edge less certain despite a strong model indication for a +1 handicap on Mainz with a 28.2% edge and 44.4% expected value. However, the entry conditions for this bet are not fully met yet, so this is a watch scenario rather than a firm recommendation. Caution is advised given the incomplete confirmation and the current scoreline dynamics.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388583 | minute: 45