Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-	-	-	2.75	1.65	-
Away	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	-	-	2.2	1.43	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
4.33	4	1.73	2	1.22	1.2	1.02	17	1.17	5	1.53	2.5	2.3	1.61

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | HOME | Edge +7.0% | EV +30.3% | ROI +81.5% | n=74 | k=4.33

2) Watch | Double Chance 1X | Edge +5.3% | EV +10.6% | ROI +24.3% | n=74 | k=2.00

3) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +3.9% | EV +6.4% | ROI +16.1% | n=74 | k=1.65

4) Watch | DRAW | Edge +0.2% | EV +0.9% | ROI -18.9% | n=74 | k=4.00

AI-agent: At 14 minutes into the Mainz vs Bayern Munich match, the score remains 0-0 with no red cards. Market pressure is favoring the home team, with odds dropping 35% from pre-match levels, reflecting the current scoreline. However, shot data does not clearly support dominance by either side, and recent play shows no sustained pressure. Both teams are playing at a slower pace compared to their last meeting, which ended 2-2. Historical data from 74 similar matches shows a 41.9% chance for a home win with a strong ROI of 81.5%, and the fair odds are around 2.39. The model identifies a potential value bet on the home win at odds of 4.33 with a 7% edge and 30.3% expected value, but the entry conditions based on current match tempo and stats are not yet met. The top markets suggest watching the home win and related bets rather than placing a stake now, indicating a monitoring phase rather than a mandatory bet. Caution is advised given the balanced game and absence of clear momentum.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388583 | minute: 14