Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	-	-	-	2.5	1.5	-
Away	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-	-	2.5	1.5	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
3.5	3.4	2.05	1.67	1.3	1.28	1.07	9	1.36	3.2	2.08	1.73	3.75	1.28

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | HOME | Edge +7.7% | EV +27.0% | ROI +17.7% | n=345 | k=3.50

2) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge +11.8% | EV +17.7% | ROI +15.2% | n=345 | k=1.50

3) Watch | Double Chance 1X | Edge +2.6% | EV +4.3% | ROI +9.6% | n=345 | k=1.67

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -0.6% | EV -1.1% | ROI +3.5% | n=345 | k=1.73

AI-agent: At 26 minutes into the M'gladbach vs Dortmund match, the score remains 0-0 with no red cards. Market pressure favors a draw with a 13% drop in odds from pre-match levels, but the home side is showing more activity and shots, especially in the recent phase. Historical data supports a +1 handicap on the home team with a strong 78.8% win rate and 15.2% ROI, confirmed by a solid sample of 345 matches. The model highlights AH_HOME+1 as the best option with an 11.8% edge and 17.7% expected value, yet the entry conditions are not fully met given the current score and match tempo. Top-4 markets suggest watching the home win or AH_HOME+1 bets with positive expected value, while under 2.5 goals is not recommended now. This is a monitoring situation rather than a mandatory bet, emphasizing risk control and waiting for clearer entry signals.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388589 | minute: 26