Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	3	0	3	3	-	-	-	2.05	1.68	1.45
Away	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	-	2.67	2.15	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
5.5	3.75	1.61	2.2	1.25	1.14	-	-	1.08	8	1.44	2.75	2.38	1.57

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +1.7% | EV +2.5% | ROI -3.5% | n=335 | k=1.45

2) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -3.2% | EV -5.3% | ROI -4.6% | n=335 | k=1.68

3) No Bet | Under 3.5 Goals | Edge -2.7% | EV -4.2% | ROI -9.5% | n=335 | k=1.57

4) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -3.0% | EV -6.6% | ROI -4.2% | n=335 | k=2.15

AI-agent: At 13 minutes into the St Pauli vs Mainz Bundesliga match, Mainz leads 1-0. Market pressure favors the away team, with odds dropping 35% from pre-match levels, reflecting the current score. However, shot data does not clearly support dominance by either side, and the home team is applying pressure recently. Historical data for similar situations shows a moderate edge for a +1.5 handicap on the home side but with a negative ROI and a failed historical check. The model suggests a +1.5 handicap on St Pauli with a slight positive edge and expected value, yet this does not meet the minimum threshold for a confident bet. The top-4 market consensus is to watch this +1.5 handicap opportunity rather than place a bet now, indicating a monitoring phase with risk control advised.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 13