Match Replay

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	4	0	4	3	-	-	-	2.05	1.7	1.45
Away	1	0	0	2	1	1	2	-	2.67	2.1	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
6	3.75	1.57	2.25	1.25	1.12	-	-	1.12	6	1.6	2.3	2.75	1.44

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +4.0% | EV +5.7% | ROI -2.1% | n=477 | k=1.45

2) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -1.4% | EV -2.4% | ROI -3.9% | n=477 | k=1.70

3) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.6% | EV -4.1% | ROI -2.1% | n=477 | k=1.60

4) No Bet | Under 2.5 Goals | Edge -3.4% | EV -7.8% | ROI -10.8% | n=477 | k=2.30

AI-agent: At 25 minutes into the St Pauli vs Mainz match, Mainz leads 1-0, but the game shows no clear dominance in play despite the scoreline. Market pressure favors Mainz with a 37% drop in odds from pre-match levels, yet shot data does not confirm strong control by either side. Historical data for similar situations suggests a moderate edge for a +1.5 handicap on St Pauli, but the negative ROI and failed historical validation advise caution. The model identifies a potential value bet on St Pauli +1.5 with a 4% edge and 5.7% expected value, yet the entry is not confirmed due to weak historical support. Overall, this is a watch situation rather than a firm betting opportunity, emphasizing risk control and monitoring the game flow before committing.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 25