Match Replay

Step 21 of 72. Current minute: 28 .

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Side	Goal	Red	Pen	Shots	Target	Missed	Corners	POS	-1.5	-1	AH0	+1	+1.5
Home	0	0	0	4	0	4	3	-	-	-	2.05	1.65	1.45
Away	1	0	0	2	1	1	2	-	2.67	2.2	1.8	-	-

W1	X	W2	1X	12	X2	O0.5	U0.5	O1.5	U1.5	O2.5	U2.5	O3.5	U3.5
6	3.75	1.57	2.25	1.25	1.12	-	-	1.12	6	1.65	2.2	3	1.4

TOP-4 markets ranking:

1) Watch | Home Asian Handicap +1.5 | Edge +4.7% | EV +6.9% | ROI -2.6% | n=484 | k=1.45

2) No Bet | Over 2.5 Goals | Edge -2.5% | EV -4.1% | ROI -1.1% | n=484 | k=1.65

3) No Bet | Home Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -2.5% | EV -4.1% | ROI -6.5% | n=484 | k=1.65

4) No Bet | Away Asian Handicap +1 | Edge -3.6% | EV -7.9% | ROI -1.1% | n=484 | k=2.20

AI-agent: At the 28th minute in the St Pauli vs Mainz match, Mainz leads 1-0, with market pressure favoring the visitors as their odds have dropped 37% from pre-match levels. However, shot data and recent play do not show clear dominance by either side, and the historical check for a home handicap +1.5 bet is weak, showing a negative ROI. The model suggests a potential value bet on AH_HOME+1.5 with a 4.7% edge and 6.9% expected value, but since the historical validation failed, this is a watch situation rather than a firm bet. Other top markets show no recommended bets, so caution is advised with risk control in mind.

Updated: June 15, 2026, 10:47 p.m. | fixture_id: 1388593 | minute: 28